If you haven't already heard that Carlos Beltran is having arthroscopic knee surgery and will be out 12 weeks, I'm sorry to have ruined (made) your day Mets (Philllies) fans.  However I'm not going to write (mock) about that situation -- I'll leave that to Matt sometime today.  Not only is Beltran sidelined, but reportedly the Mets are close to signing the 35-year-old Bengie Molina to a two-year deal.

And this is where Phillies fans celebrate again.  Omar apparently is failing to hold the one-year line on Molina who himself was holding out for three.  I guess that's a compromise, but the Mets are certainly the ones suffering. Craig Calcaterra put a good spin on the news over at Circling the Bases today: After telling us about the Carlos Beltran surgery thing, Bob asked what else could go wrong for the Mets. I suppose some will differ, but giving two years to a catcher with a .285 on base percentage seems wrong to me. Morosi says they're close to doing that with Bengie Molina. I've never quite understood why the Mets want him, but then again there are a lot of things I don't understand about the Mets. And that about sums it up!

This season is shaping up to be more and more critical as the season nears.  With Beltran's injury, the additions of both over-30 guys, Bay and Molina, and a dearth of major-league ready talent on the farm, it could be a rocky few years as more of Wright and Reyes' primes is wasted with lackluster team performance.

The shift towards statistics and sabermetrics in baseball took the baseball world by storm in the past decade or two.  Moneyball put it on the map and everyone who wasn't already running with it, picked it up quickly. Except Ruben Amaro?

Rob Neyer blogged today, linking an article about modern defensive metrics; the article also quoted Ruben Amaro who doesn't have an in-house stat guy and probably never will.

Come again?

In this day and age, how can anyone outside of Omar Minaya ignore the modern push towards sabermetrics?  Neyer helps shed light on the conundrum:

One, the Phillies do value defense, walks, and baserunning but don't bother with any advanced metrics. It would not be so difficult to build a team with a good Ultimate Zone Rating while not actually paying any attention to Ultimate Zone Rating. Meanwhile, walks are walks and it's not so difficult to know a good baserunner when you see one. Granted, all these things are easier with good numbers. But defense and baserunning are highly scoutable, too. 

And two, notice what Kerfeld said. He said the Phillies don't have an in-house stats guy. That leaves a great deal of room for consultants. Some GMs prefer to use consultants because they're cheaper (and more easily disposable) than full-time employees, and also because their lack of presence around the office results in fewer ruffled feathers among the ex-ballplayers (like Charlie Kerfeld) running around the place. I would be willing to bet money (though not a lot) that the Phillies do have an out-of-house stats guy, and perhaps a few of them.

I can't find the link, but we've talked in the past about how Ruben claims to ignore defensive statistics because they're so volatile and unpredictable.  Neyer is most likely right (big surprise) that the Phillies do use statistics, just in an unconventional way to keep all of their old school baseball scouts happy.

Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse believes the Mets are actively pursuing Joel Piniero, and talking about a contract in the neighborhood of 2 years, $15 million.  If this report is accurate, this deal needs to get done now.  I've maintained all offseason that Pineiro is the most feasible option for the Mets, and that contract would be a major bargain.  And with just two years guaranteed, it is extremely low risk.  There are several reasons why I really like Pineiro.

• He throws strikes (just 27 walks in 214 innings last year)
• He's only 30 years old
• Produced the highest ground ball % in baseball last year (a ridiculous 60.5%)
  
• Career record over .500 (87-79)
• For the most part, he eats innings and can pitch late into games
• Career stats vs. the Phillies: 2-0, 1.78 ERA in 25 innings

Of course, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Pineiro.  Was last season a fluke?  Will he be successful without Dave Duncan?  These are certainly valid questions.  But I think the main reason Pineiro was so good last year was the introduction of a sinker.  And as much as Dave Duncan deserves the credit for this, is Pineiro going to suddenly forget how to throw a sinker?  I think Dan Warthen is more than capable of reinforcing that pitch.

In short, as much as Pineiro's career has been a rollercoaster ride, I think he would be a relatively safe option at that price.  Even if he flames out, this contract wouldn't cripple the Mets.  So if he could be had at such a bargain, I think the Mets need to jump all over it.  For the record, Pineiro's 2009 season was worth $21.5 million according to Fangraphs.

Still a free agent, Pedro Martinez weighs his options while deciding where to sign this year.  Search around the news and blogosphere and see that every team in baseball could/should/might sign the old righty.  The Phillies and the Mets, to name two that we care about, are amidst internal talks on whether or not they should show him the money.  Pedro made it clear in 2009 that he's got value and  can be well worth the investment in the right deal.

Best care scenario, the Phillies call Pedro and tell him to stay home, break out the arm-band exercises, and avoid fattening up; then at the All-Star break the old dog can join with the team and begin pitching full time for the Phillies.  It'd be great to have him as a fourth or fifth starter for the whole season, however, it is doubtful that he can handle that so we'll take what we can get.

I'd say the same thing would be wise for the Mets, but Pedro knows if he signs there he'll most likely blow out his arm or pull a hammy like everyone else in the clubhouse, yeah, he'd be smart to avoid Flushing.  When I went there to watch a game I stumbled and stubbed my toe getting to my seat and a guy ten rows below me got smashed by a foul ball and somebody named Luis Castillo hit a home run.  I must have be making it all up if I remember Luis homering...

Next up in my 2010 fearless forecast is Carlos Beltran.  For a full list of 2010 projections click here.

As much as I like to call Jose Reyes the team's MVP, its really hard to overlook the value of Carlos Beltran.  Beltran was admist yet another monster season when knee trouble sidelined him in mid June.  He eventually returned for a few games in September, but his season was pretty much a wash.  Remarkably, even though he only played in 81 games, he still produced 2.9 WAR.  Fans have always been hard on Beltran, but year in and year out he proves why he is an elite centerfielder.  Still only 32 years old, Beltran is in the heart of his prime, and it's hard to not expect big things from him in 2010.

By The Numbers:

My Two Cents: I think the projections are WAY too conservative.  First of all, it is absurd to project injuries, and that is the problem with computer projections.  As much as Mets fans like to call Beltran soft, he averaged 149 games in his first four years with the Mets.  It is certainly possible that his knee situation will develop into a chronic problem.  But until this is proven to be true, its hard to draw that conclusion.  Looking at the numbers, I actually think Beltran will be a better hitter in Citi Field.  His power numbers will definitely take a small hit, but he appears to be a doubles machine.  I think thats a big reason why he batted .325 last year, almost 40 points above his career average.  It's a very limited sample size, but I expect this trend to continue.

2010 Will Be Successful If: Beltran is given adequate protection.  I think a lot of his success will hinge on David Wright and Jason Bay.  If they both have monster years, I will expect the same out of Beltran.  Especially since he struggles at times with the breaking ball.  If Beltran stays patient and gets good pitches to hit, he is a guarenteed all-star.  I really hope Jerry Manuel bats Beltran second in the batting order.  Just imagine Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay.  Thats as intimidating as it gets.

2010 Will Be a Failure If: Again, an obvious answer is health.  And there is no doubt that Mets fans should be worried about Beltran's knee.  But another key to Beltran's season is confidence.  When he struggled in 2005, I think the constant media and fan pressure got to him.  And he definitely lost a ton of confidence.  If the Mets get off to a bad start, and Beltran isn't playing well, I'm worried that the media will eat Beltran alive, and possibly even run him out of town.  This would, of course, be ridiculous, but you just never know in New York.  So I think getting off to a strong start is a must for Beltran.

In a very interesting and telling post over at Amazin' Avenue, they aim to break down the value of both the Mets & Phillies "Complementary Players". They do this by analyzing each team's 3 core players Wins Above Replacement Value, and then do the same for the remaining players which they dub as "Complementary".

In 2006, the Mets & Phillies had nearly identical core & complementary WAR values.  However from 2007-2009 the difference between the Mets & Phillies becomes more and more stark, culminating with a Complementary WAR value nearly twice as much the Mets in 2009.

While these results aren't very surprising, it is a very interesting attempt to pinpoint the Mets primary weakness.  The conclusion is that if the Mets are somehow able to get back to a net 2 WAR from their Complementary players, they could produce at a level similar to that of 2006, when they ran away with the division.  Check it out...

In the aftermath of the Mets' dismal 2009 season, some commentators in the Mets blogosphere argued that the team's woes stemmed from Omar Minaya's failure to surround his core group of players -- David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran -- with "complementary" players.   This argument makes sense on a gut level, but it raises an important question: what do we mean when we talk about "complementary" players? To answer this question, I compared the Mets' roster over the last four seasons to the Phillies' roster over the same time period. I chose the Phillies as a comparable team because, like the Mets, the Phillies' roster has been built around a three-player offensive core -- Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins.  By isolating these core players and focusing on each team's Top 7 non-core offensive WAR producers, we can see what types of players outside the core helped to contribute to each teams' offensive production over the last four seasons.

The two offenses produced nearly identical WAR numbers from their Top 10 offensive contributors (31.1 WAR for the Phillies, 30.2 WAR for the Mets).  While the Phillies' core produced nearly two more wins than the Mets' core in 2006, the Mets' complementary players produced nearly a win more than the Phillies' complementary players.  What's interesting here is the variance in the distribution of each team's complementary player production.  The Mets produced a higher total complementary player WAR on the backs of its top-four complementary players -- Lo Duca, Valentin, Delgado, and Chavez -- who cumulatively produced 11.8 WAR.   The Phillies, on the other hand, received at least a win of production from each of its complementary players, but its top-four complementary players fell 3.1 wins short of matching the Mets' top-four complementary players.  Thus, the Mets relied on top-heavy production from its complementary players, while the Phillies received a more even distribution of production from its complementary players.

2007 Rosters

Leading off my new feature, of course, is Jose Reyes.  Despite an injury plagued 2009, Reyes remains one of the brightest young talents in all of baseball.  Only 26 years old, he is already a two time all-star, and has developed into an above average leadoff hitter.  However, those who watch Reyes play day in and day out realize he has the potential for greatness.  Will 2010 be the year he finally puts it all together?  Or has Reyes already peaked?  Time to look into the crystal ball:

By The Numbers:

My Two Cents: These projections seem pretty spot on.  I think if Reyes stays healthy, he will have no problem returning to all-star form.  I'm staying conservative in the power department because of Citi Field, but I also think Reyes will see a big increase in triples and steals.  I was tempted to project a monster year for Reyes, but I'm staying fairly conservative for now.  If he puts up the numbers I project, it will be considered a very good season.  But like I said before, he has the potential for so much more.  However, coming off a serious injury, its hard for me to believe 2010 will be that year.

2010 will be successful if: Reyes plays to the dimensions of Citi Field.  At times he can get HR happy, and that usually leads to a prolonged slump.  He needs to focus on hitting line drives, getting on base, and scoring runs.  He also needs to be smarter on the bases.  But most of all, he needs to be himself.  Play the game like a kid and have fun.  If he can do all of this, 2010 will be a big year.

2010 will be a failure if: The obvious answer is health.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  Reyes is the Mets MVP.  As he goes, the Mets go.  So keeping him on the field is a must.  As long as he plays, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't succeed.

For once Mike is right.  There is literally nothing interesting to talk about this week.  So I've decided to go through the entire Mets roster one-by-one, and project each players 2010 season.  My goal is to make this a daily feature, one player at a time.  I'm going to encorporate various projection systems, including CHONE, PECOTA, Bill James, and of course my own two cents.  This should be a lot of fun to compile, and at the very least it will give us something interesting to talk about.  So stay tuned.  I'm going to start with the projected batting order, then move on to pitching.  Expect a Jose Reyes post by the end of the day.

There is nothing to talk about this week.  Well, nothing interesting that is.  We signed Danys Baez -- cool.  The Mets aren't signing Aroldis Chapman -- duh.  The entire NL East is interested in John Smoltz -- bah.  Except for a fun possibility I found on PhilliesNation.  It was just a little thought at the end of a post on pitching and here it is:

Here is a complete hypothetical: The San Francisco Giants are looking for a new left fielder.  The Phillies have one in Raul Ibanez.  They also have a pretty capable backup in Ben Francisco.

The scenario: The Phillies trade Raul to SF for some more prospects to stock the system (throw in one of their top-notch relievers, too).  Francisco plays left for the Phillies for a year (not the worst thing in the world) and the Phillies save money that will enable them to pay Jayson Werth, and possibly Shane Victorino, on a long-term contract.  Ben Fran keeps the position warm for Dominic Brown in 2011 and the Phillies will have a top notch outfield for at least the next five seasons.

In no way am I calling for Raul to be traded.  Like I said, it’s a complete hypothetical for those looking to keep Werth and Victorino around for several years.  I think Ibanez is slightly overpaid and hinders the Phillies from locking up other players, but I do think a healthy Raul is a huge key to the success of the team in ‘10. The Giants are reportedly looking at Johnny Damon for left field, or, moving Mark Derosa there and signing Adam Laroche for first base.

Verrrrrrrrry interesting indeed.  Raul became a fan favorite in no time and put together a fantastic stretch of hitting to start '09 that jump started the season.  However, from a purely business and/or economic standpoint, trading Raul makes sense (in the right deal of course).  Between Domonic Brown, Ben Francisco, & John Mayberry Jr. there is a capable everyday player somewhere.  That would be a downgrade offensively, but also save $11.5 million this season and the next.  And when you think about it...

ROY HALLADAY AND CLIFF LEE!

Yet another possible way that the Phillies could have had three aces (including Cole) at the top of their rotation.  In that case, sacrificing Raul's offense is okay if it means such a strong pitching staff in 2010.  Then Cliff leaves after the season and we re-up Shane & Jay. God damn it, I digress...

In the aftermath of the Jason Bay signing, Fernando Martinez has been lost in the shuffle.  The once great "teenage hitting machine" has yet to play a full season in the minors, and looked completely overmatched during his brief stint with the Mets.  That being said, F-Mart posted a respectable .290/.337/.540 line as a 20 year old in AAA last season.  He also hit 8 homeruns in just 176 at-bats, which is particularly impressive given his age and previous lack of power.  So there is not doubt that the talent is still there and scouts value his talent.  I'm sure his trade value has dipped due to health concerns, but he is still a top 50 prospect with loads of potential.  Don't believe me?  Look at other players age 20 seasons:

Based on this table, I'm not ready to give up on Fernando Martinez.  I've followed the kid closely since he turned pro at age 16, and last year he finally began to shown glimpses of his potential.  The problem is, the Mets now have 3 quality outfielders all under contract through at least 2011.  And with such glaring needs at other positions, Fernando Martinez might be more valuable to the Mets as a trade chip.

Best case scenario, I think the Mets should hold on to Martinez and let him start the year in AAA.  Hopefully he can stay healthy and accumulate trade value.  Then the Mets could package him in a deadline deal to acquire an elite starting pitcher.  Of course, this is all speculation, but that would be my plan if I were the GM of the Mets.  Who knows? Maybe an injury will force Fernando back to New York.  Maybe he will struggle in the minors.  It remains to be seen.  But I think the kid still has a ton of value, and I think the Mets should cash in now that the outfield is set.