Over the last couple of years, all I keep hearing is how the Mets can't trade for such and such a player because they don't have "the chips"...Then we get Johan Santana, and now we really cleaned out our farm system right?  Wrong.

Doug Grey over at redsminorleagues.com comprised a ranking of franchise farm valuations using John Sickles preliminary prospect rankings, research by Victor Wang & surplus value calculations by Erik Manning from Beyond the Boxscore.  Here's what he found:

The Mets rank right in the middle of the pack coming in at #13 sandwiched in between the Royals and Reds.  Not great, but certainly not the stereotype of doom and gloom that is pushed by the media and right here on this site.

On the other hand, what I find most interesting (and satisfying) is how shitty the Phillies farm system is.  Yup the Phillies rank #27 out of 30 teams with a combined valuation of 58.58.  That's nearly half as much value as the Mets farm system.  In other words, according to this statistical analysis, the Mets farm system is twice as good as the Phillies....Let that sink in a little bit more:  TWICE AS GOOD.

So when Mike says the mets should go about fixing "all cracks in the [Mets] foundation (farm system)", it would appear it is not the Mets whose farm is in a dyer situation.  Many Phillie fans like to puff their chest out and give their front office a pass when they sign a 40 year old left field more suited to a DH role, trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for an older more injury prone best pitcher in baseball and needlessly sign aging back up players to multi-year deal all because "The Phillies are a championship caliber team".  Well, so were the Mets in 2006-2008.  Injuries and a lack of MLB ready talent is what did them in during that time period.  As unlucky as the Mets were last year with injuries, the Phillies had very few.  The tide turns very quickly in the MLB and luck and injuries play a significant part.  It will be interesting to see how the Phillies farm system produces when they are inevitably forced to use it...and that could be the beginning of the end of this Phillies team.

So Phillie fans, discuss amongst yourselves.  I am sure I will see well thought out statistical rebuttals in the face of such damning evidence with no emotional homer-ism going on...ah, who am I kidding, these are Phillie Phans we are talking about!  Bring on the comments about misspellings in this post.  Enjoy.

The hits just keep on coming.  I haven't written about the Phillies in a week because this Mets stuff allows for me to bash them seemingly everyday.  Craig Calcaterra (the Shyster) writes for Circling the Bases today about the situation and a new wrinkle from Peter Gammons.  Namely, that the Mets never insured Carlos Beltran's contract.  Therefore, in things go awry and he misses the season, the Mets pay his exorbitant salary for him to rehab and rest.  The Shyster wonders whether the Mets mistake was due to incompetence and/or reluctancy to spend.  Did they botch the insurance, not realizing the need to insure an aging star, or did they try to sneak by without paying the premiums?  Either way, despite the rain cloud that's been flooding Flushing for the past year, the heavy stuff isn't coming down for a while.

Added by Benny B

From Metsblog:

I e-mailed Maury Brown, from the Biz of Baseball, as well as Will Carroll ofBaseball Prospectus, both of whom I trust and respect when it comes to medical and contract news in MLB, and they said:

Carroll: It’s impossible to insure a pitcher beyond three years.  I’d assume that it’s the same for position players.  I’d guess maybe 10 percent of contracts are insured.  Maybe.

Brown: My understanding is long-term contracts are becoming exceptionally hard due to risk.

I know you take joy in jumping on Mets management, but do some research first.  Is Halliday's contract insured?

Exhibit 247H-921.5.7 that the Mets organization is running beyond repair comes from Buster Olney's blog today.  Buster imparted the following, in his moves,deals and decisions section:

Part of the unusual nature of the Mets' offseason has been the fact that general manager Omar Minaya has never been given a budget. As the baseball operations powers have been evaluating possible strategies, the executives haven't been able to cast these choices against the context of how much money is available. On almost all teams, the talent evaluators are given a budget and then paint within those lines, dispersing the dollars according to the needs. The Mets' front office, on the other hand, is making its recommendations to Jeff Wilpon on a case-by-case basis, without knowing whether it is yet bumping up against a financial ceiling, or knowing how to prioritize the current needs for pitching or catching. "You need to start with a budget," said one talent evaluator. "And then you work from there. This really makes it much more difficult." In many cases, Wilpon has been the lead negotiator for the Mets this offseason, and not Omar Minaya -- reinforcing the belief in some corners of the organization that Minaya is one extended losing streak removed from being fired.

Come again?  In what way is managing a payroll without knowing the budget a strong financial move?  So, Minaya is going to go out and say, "what the hell, let's throw... hmmm... $5 million at Francoeur today and see what the big guy says,"  without having a clue how close he is to Wilpon's monetary threshold.  Does Minaya have to just keep trucking along, spending money until Wilpon steps in and tells him to pump the brakes?

On top of that, Omar's power within the organization must be evaporating fast if Wilpon is doing the negotiating and giving the okay for all personnel moves.  That puts the Mets in a Jerry Jones type scenario where the ownership assumes control of the ship and everybody else is a figurehead.  The dysfunction in the Mets organization is reaching new, before unseen bounds this year.  This situation opens the door for a stranger one:  Wilpon has a precise budget, he just isn't sharing it with the GM.  Then he let's Omar do the dirty work and put together figures and locate players, then Wilpon chooses the course of action.  Simpler, Omar crunches numbers, Wilpon gets to play with them, Omar takes the fall in the long run.

Imagine you're given a house in a sweepstakes.  Hey, here's your house, we'll pay for any renovations you make up until a certain point, but we're not telling you where.  What do you do then?  How do you prioritize one job versus another?  Putting in a new kitchen (Molina) would be fantastic, but can you really go without fixing that bathroom (Pinero), and what about the electrical issues (Filling the bench) all cracks in the foundation (farm system).  Without a budget, there's no way to know where to start.

I am driving the non-Mets-fan car in the Fire Omar Minaya bandwagon and even I think he's destined to fail with such a organizational dynamic in place.  Look at the example above, Bengie Molina rejected the Mets offer today (yes, the one we all thought he signed).  Now the focus shifts on Joel Pinero.  Omar has no idea how much money there is for Molina and Pinero; if he wants to sign one, will there be money for the other?  If Buster's insight is true, then I have as much of a clue as Minaya does.  That's a problem of the highest order and something we've come to expect from our Flushing rivals.

This Carlos Beltran battle has undoubtedly been a bright part of my week.  Carlos had surgery, wasn't supposed to, the Mets didn't know, he said, she said.  Awesome.  The team won't have him for the first month or so of the season, and that's if things go well.  As I right this, I can feel the "bah! typical Phillies fans, celebrating an injury" coming.  Go right ahead and throw it out there, but it isn't the reality.  The reality is that this gives me so much pleasure because it's another example of the dysfunctional Mets organization at work. I don't root for Mets players to get injured because then it just leaves room for "Oh, well we weren't at full strength, we had injuries, blah, blah, blah" when the Phillies top the Mets in the standings.  I want the Mets at full strength to really break their spirits.

My favorite Beltran post of the week comes from Real Fake Sports, who highlighted the real reason the Mets were so angry; Beltran performed the surgery on himself!:

The New York Mets are outraged with their centerfielder Carlos Beltran and his decision to perform surgery on his own knee. The team had hoped Beltran would have sought the services of an actual sports medicine physician.

"I can't believe Carlos would do that," said an angered member of Mets management. "He had no idea what he was doing and could have cause some serious damage. I wish Carlos would have taken the time to discuss further options with our medical staff instead of taking things into his own hands. Literally. If he didn't want to utilize the Mets team physician that's one thing, but performing a surgery on yourself? That ludicrous!"

You can't even make this stuff up.  Not only are the Mets going to be without Carlos Beltran for most of April, they have successfully embarrassed themselves as an organization, and created a rift with one of the best players in baseball.

Obviously, the lack of communication between Beltran and the organization is alarming.  But I'm even more upset that Beltran didn't have this surgery months ago.  This leads my to believe that the Mets doctors have absolutely no idea what they're doing.  According to Craig Carton, Beltran had 25 pieces of loose cartilage in his knee.  I'm no doctor, but I think its pretty obvious that this requires some form of surgery.

Based on Carton's account of the story, which can be read here, the Mets knew Beltran was having issues with his knee, and both sides agreed that surgery was probably the best option.  Beltran was told to meet with team physician Dr. Altchek, and give the Mets brass a few days to think things over.  But Altchek told Beltran that there was no reason to wait, and the procedure should be done as soon as possible.  He referred Beltran to Dr. Steadman  (the James Andrews of knee injuries), and he set up surgery for 7am the next morning.  The Wilpons and Omar Minaya are in Arizona for the owners meetings, so there was no time to think things over.  Apparently, Dr. Steadman did get in contact with the Mets, because otherwise he couldn't legally operate on Beltran.  Carton also claims that Beltran called Minaya right before the procedure, and Minaya said he was on board.

If this account is true, and I tend to trust Carton as a reliable source, the Mets are making a big deal out of nothing.  Because if they did feel surgery was the best course of action, I don't understand why they would spend a few days thinking things over.  Every extra day they wait is an extra game Beltran could miss.  I feel like there's more to this story, and I'm going to reserve final judgement until we know all the details.  But this is just more bad press for the Mets, and I think it's pretty obvious that Beltran's relationship with the Mets is now strained.

Added by Benny B.

And if you thought it possibly couldn't get any worse, think again.  The incredible Omar Minaya (which is how I am going to be referring to him from now on since he is a circus act) added his two cents by saying he did NOT discuss the surgery with Beltran, and thus did not know about it.

Sheesh.  Can this guy just STFU already!  Or better yet, just fire him like he should have been last year or even the year before. He is a lame duck which is why they did not turn to Omar to give the initial press conference.  I have got to believe that he is slated to be fired soon, and if I had to guess, they are simply waiting to fill out their roster so potential free agents wouldn't get scared away by a team in turmoil.  Well, maybe that was the plan, but now that this fiasco has taken place, what are they waiting for?  In fact, it would probably be better to fire somebody at this juncture than alienating the best player on your team and the biggest sports agent in the game.  I mean, even if the mets "win" this battle, they will lose and I can't believe nobody in this organization can see this.

Dave Cameron put it best in a post over at Fangraphs:

Ricco’s handling of the conference call only goes to further confuse the chain of authority in Queens. Minaya is clearly not in charge, as the Wilpons continue to exercise more than a usual amount of influence on the front office. But they won’t willingly admit to running things either, leading to a nebulous power situation where there is simply no clear leader.

This is dysfunction on a large stage. Much like the last days of Jim Bowden’s reign in Washington, you have to wonder whether they’ll be able to escape growing evidence of a lack of control in the front office – never mind the questionable decisions Minaya has made spending the Wilpons’ money.

At this point, they just need to start over. The current situation isn’t working and it’s getting worse, not better. The team has a new ballpark in a huge metropolitan area and some terrific pieces to build around – they should be contenders. They should be well-run. But they aren’t. It’s time for some wholesale changes before things get any worse, if that’s possible.

Apparently, it is possible Dave...

For all those phillie phans whooping it up after hearing the news that Carlos Beltran underwent surgery with or without the Mets blessing, allow me to temper that excitement:

According, to the News Journal, Brad Lidge underwent another "knee scoping" operation similar to Carlos Beltran's yesterday:

Lidge, it turns out, had his right knee scoped yesterday by team physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti at the Rotman Institute at Thomas Jefferson University. The procedure involved the removal of loose bodies and a “meniscal debridement.” In November, Lidge had a bone chip removed from his right elbow, but the knee surgery comes as even more of a surprise considering the answers Lidge’s agent, Rex Gary, has been giving all winter about the sound condition of the closer’s right knee, which gave him problems during the first few months of last season but was believed to be healthy during the second half.

So, if they had a similar opperation, it is safe to assume the recovery time will be about the same, which in Beltran's case is 12 weeks.  Considering that this opperation was performed on Lidge's push off knee, it could take some time for him to regain full velocity.

I guess that means newly acquired Baez with his 4+ ERA will be assuming the closer duties while Lidge recovers.  One would think that the Phillies knew about this issue with Lidge, and thats why they went out to sign Baez.  However, if that is the case, and they did know, why did they wait weeks for Lidge to have this operation?

If you haven't already heard that Carlos Beltran is having arthroscopic knee surgery and will be out 12 weeks, I'm sorry to have ruined (made) your day Mets (Philllies) fans.  However I'm not going to write (mock) about that situation -- I'll leave that to Matt sometime today.  Not only is Beltran sidelined, but reportedly the Mets are close to signing the 35-year-old Bengie Molina to a two-year deal.

And this is where Phillies fans celebrate again.  Omar apparently is failing to hold the one-year line on Molina who himself was holding out for three.  I guess that's a compromise, but the Mets are certainly the ones suffering. Craig Calcaterra put a good spin on the news over at Circling the Bases today: After telling us about the Carlos Beltran surgery thing, Bob asked what else could go wrong for the Mets. I suppose some will differ, but giving two years to a catcher with a .285 on base percentage seems wrong to me. Morosi says they're close to doing that with Bengie Molina. I've never quite understood why the Mets want him, but then again there are a lot of things I don't understand about the Mets. And that about sums it up!

This season is shaping up to be more and more critical as the season nears.  With Beltran's injury, the additions of both over-30 guys, Bay and Molina, and a dearth of major-league ready talent on the farm, it could be a rocky few years as more of Wright and Reyes' primes is wasted with lackluster team performance.

The shift towards statistics and sabermetrics in baseball took the baseball world by storm in the past decade or two.  Moneyball put it on the map and everyone who wasn't already running with it, picked it up quickly. Except Ruben Amaro?

Rob Neyer blogged today, linking an article about modern defensive metrics; the article also quoted Ruben Amaro who doesn't have an in-house stat guy and probably never will.

Come again?

In this day and age, how can anyone outside of Omar Minaya ignore the modern push towards sabermetrics?  Neyer helps shed light on the conundrum:

One, the Phillies do value defense, walks, and baserunning but don't bother with any advanced metrics. It would not be so difficult to build a team with a good Ultimate Zone Rating while not actually paying any attention to Ultimate Zone Rating. Meanwhile, walks are walks and it's not so difficult to know a good baserunner when you see one. Granted, all these things are easier with good numbers. But defense and baserunning are highly scoutable, too. 

And two, notice what Kerfeld said. He said the Phillies don't have an in-house stats guy. That leaves a great deal of room for consultants. Some GMs prefer to use consultants because they're cheaper (and more easily disposable) than full-time employees, and also because their lack of presence around the office results in fewer ruffled feathers among the ex-ballplayers (like Charlie Kerfeld) running around the place. I would be willing to bet money (though not a lot) that the Phillies do have an out-of-house stats guy, and perhaps a few of them.

I can't find the link, but we've talked in the past about how Ruben claims to ignore defensive statistics because they're so volatile and unpredictable.  Neyer is most likely right (big surprise) that the Phillies do use statistics, just in an unconventional way to keep all of their old school baseball scouts happy.

Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse believes the Mets are actively pursuing Joel Piniero, and talking about a contract in the neighborhood of 2 years, $15 million.  If this report is accurate, this deal needs to get done now.  I've maintained all offseason that Pineiro is the most feasible option for the Mets, and that contract would be a major bargain.  And with just two years guaranteed, it is extremely low risk.  There are several reasons why I really like Pineiro.

• He throws strikes (just 27 walks in 214 innings last year)
• He's only 30 years old
• Produced the highest ground ball % in baseball last year (a ridiculous 60.5%)
  
• Career record over .500 (87-79)
• For the most part, he eats innings and can pitch late into games
• Career stats vs. the Phillies: 2-0, 1.78 ERA in 25 innings

Of course, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Pineiro.  Was last season a fluke?  Will he be successful without Dave Duncan?  These are certainly valid questions.  But I think the main reason Pineiro was so good last year was the introduction of a sinker.  And as much as Dave Duncan deserves the credit for this, is Pineiro going to suddenly forget how to throw a sinker?  I think Dan Warthen is more than capable of reinforcing that pitch.

In short, as much as Pineiro's career has been a rollercoaster ride, I think he would be a relatively safe option at that price.  Even if he flames out, this contract wouldn't cripple the Mets.  So if he could be had at such a bargain, I think the Mets need to jump all over it.  For the record, Pineiro's 2009 season was worth $21.5 million according to Fangraphs.

Still a free agent, Pedro Martinez weighs his options while deciding where to sign this year.  Search around the news and blogosphere and see that every team in baseball could/should/might sign the old righty.  The Phillies and the Mets, to name two that we care about, are amidst internal talks on whether or not they should show him the money.  Pedro made it clear in 2009 that he's got value and  can be well worth the investment in the right deal.

Best care scenario, the Phillies call Pedro and tell him to stay home, break out the arm-band exercises, and avoid fattening up; then at the All-Star break the old dog can join with the team and begin pitching full time for the Phillies.  It'd be great to have him as a fourth or fifth starter for the whole season, however, it is doubtful that he can handle that so we'll take what we can get.

I'd say the same thing would be wise for the Mets, but Pedro knows if he signs there he'll most likely blow out his arm or pull a hammy like everyone else in the clubhouse, yeah, he'd be smart to avoid Flushing.  When I went there to watch a game I stumbled and stubbed my toe getting to my seat and a guy ten rows below me got smashed by a foul ball and somebody named Luis Castillo hit a home run.  I must have be making it all up if I remember Luis homering...