On October 8th of last year, thefightins.com posted an article based on a picture of Charlie Manuel in the dugout with his hands down his pants. He was caught on MLB.TV's "home dugout cam" prancing around the dugout blowing gum bubbles. After winning a World Series and then returning to the Fall Classic the next year, swagger makes it acceptable to manage games with your hands down your pants. Having faith in the Phillies has been easy over the past couple years and Charlie is the most loyal.

The other night, in the midst of a losing streak, Charlie let his heart decide the game. He didn't manage with his hands down his pants. Maybe if he did, it would have shown his balls.

In the top of the seventh inning Ryan Howard flew out. Jayson Werth drew a walk followed by a line drive single by Jimmy Rollins. Cody Ransom struck out and with two outs Carlos Ruiz was walked intentionally to load up the bases. With the game tied one to one, in a must win game, Joe Blanton was due up. Wilson Valdez was certainly gonna be up by the time you returned to the sofa with a fresh beer, right?

Wrong.

The ever loyal Charlie Manuel decided to bat Blanton. He struck out on three straight pitches and just like that, the Phillies' tease was over. Blanton, at that point, had only surrendered one run on six hits through six innings. But he was up to 74 pitches. Not bad for any other pitcher NOT named Joe Blanton. Because after 74 pitches, Joe Blanton has a loathsome 9.18 ERA. So as Blanton waddled out to the mound in the bottom of the seventh inning, you couldn't help but feel like this was a bad idea. And just like that he gave up a first pitch home run to Matt Holliday giving the Cardinals the go ahead lead and eventually earning their third win out of the four game series.

Loyalty is certainly a double edged sword. And what makes Charlie Manuel one of the bests at what he does is his trust and faith in his team. And why not? They've been the best team in the NL the past two seasons and he maintains a peaceful, drama free clubhouse. But the other end of that sword cuts you when your loyalty gets in the way of rationality. And in many times this season, Charlie Manuel turned away from the panic button.
 
On Monday night, Charlie allowed the easily flustered Kyle Kendick to dig himself a hole the young pitcher wasn't experienced getting out of. In a 4-3 Phils lead, he allowed Kendrick to pitch to Albert Pujols with a runner on second and one out. Pujols took a sinker left over the plate and jolted it out into the left field night. With Kendricks inability to stay focused after losing it for a bit, Charlie should have put out the smoke in the brush before it spread to the three alarm fire it did. After Pujols' smack, Allen Craig and Skip Schumaker went yard back to back and along with the game lead went Kyle Kendricks night and possibly the rest of his Phillies season, as he was optioned to triple a lehigh valley the next day. Kendrick finished the night with an ugly tattoo on his pride as he gave up 7 runs over 5 innings and, oh yeah, that back-to-back-to-back thing in the 5th. The idea of teaching Kendrick to fight his own battles and finish them is the only way he is going to learn to keep composure when the balls start flying far and deep. But not when you're severely slumping, and coming off of a 1-3 start to the second half of the season. It's hard to understand why Charlie is chosing to gamble when lately, the Phils' money has been funny. It's either a lack of confidence in his bullpen or, in the case of Joe Blanton, a lack of confidence in his pinch hitters. Either way, now's not the time to wear his heart on his sleeve. 
 
Like any other night I went to bed to the moans and groans of Philly sports fans on the radio. Because it helps me sleep better knowing there's a belly ache for reasoning that stretches across the pits of thousands of Delaware Valley stomachs.

This concoction of sour offense and choking pitching is leaving Phillies' fans with daily morning hangovers. When a team that's only peeled off three runs since Monday has a chance to grind out a close momentus win, Charlie's loyalty cannot interfere with that. Managing a popularity contest doesn't win baseball games. Sometimes feelings need to be hurt, names need to be called out and chairs need to be tossed. Especially when this team has been spoiled by not only their manager but by their success.

And that takes balls.

The Mets have dropped 10 out of their last 13 games, and 6 of 7 since the all-star break.  If not for a gift from umpire Phil Cuzzi, the Mets would still be searching for their first second half win.  They haven't won a series since the last weekend in June, which means 6 straight series losses or ties. And all of this with the return of Carlos Beltran.

It's difficult to pinpoint exactly what is causing this train wreck.  Clearly, it all starts with a lack of offense.  They've gone 12 straight games without scoring more than 4 runs.  With Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran at the top of your lineup, this is flat out unacceptable.  And then there's the starting pitching.  With all the talk about Johan's "diminished stuff" he has been absolutely brilliant during this recent skid.  Niese has been solid, and the future is bright for him.  RA Dickey has been a godsend, an absolute lifesaver for this team right now. But how long do we really expect this to last?  More importantly, Takahashi and Pelfrey are taking the Mets out of games right now, and taking them out early.  If Pelfrey doesn't improve, this team is in serious trouble.

Given all of this, we've seen how capable the Mets are of catching fire, and I still have hope that they can.  In order to do so, they're going to need a spark, and as far as I'm concerned there are four possible ways to do so:

1.  Go out and acquire a big name, front of the rotation starter -  I hate to admit it, but this scenario is highly unlikely.  The market for pitching is weak, and the price tags are just way too high.  But the Wilpons need to do everything possible to remain competitive, or this ship will sink fast.  If you bring in a guy like Roy Oswalt, the fanbase will be re-energized, and you take a ton of pressure off of Mike Pelfrey, RA Dickey and Jon Niese.  Then by sliding Takahashi to a bullpen role, where he is much more effective, you essentially add another reliever.  It makes too much sense.  Which is exactly why I have zero confidence in the Wilpons/Minaya to pull the trigger.

2.  Infuse the roster with a big time call-up from the minors - Remember the impact Ike Davis had on this team from the minute he came up? He lit a spark when the Mets were completely lifeless.  Similar to where they are right now.  Unfortunately, the Mets are lacking in major league ready prosepcts right now.  And the big league lineup is pretty much a logjam right now, to the point where any other position besides 2B is on lockdown.  If not, I would suggest giving Fernando Martinez (I know he's struggling), Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis a shot.  But there is one guy who I think can help them right away:

Dillion Gee - If the Mets are unable to acquire another starter, why not give Gee a shot, and move Takahashi to the pen?  Gee has been hot and cold all season in AAA, but when he's on, he's on.  And so far in July, he's been on.  So far in July: 21.2 IP, 14 H, 2.49 ERA, 7 R, 2 HR, 2 BB, 25 K.  That's something to get excited about, and maybe the Mets could catch lightning in a bottle with Gee.

3.  Someone needs to put the team on their back - Jason Bay, I'm looking at you.  Give us one of those incredible hot streaks Boston fans became accustomed to last year.  Come up with some big hits, and maybe even start hitting it over the fence?  That would be nice.  If Bay isn't up to the task, we know that David Wright, Carlos Beltran, or Jose Reyes are more than capable.  A bigtime hot streak from one of them could propel the Mets lineup.  And if more than one guy gets hot at the same time, forget it. 

4.  Fire Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya - I have always defended the two of them, even when no other Met fan would.  But if the Mets don't drastically improve by the end of this roadtrip, I would be all for it.  They're struggling mightily and not making adjustments.  It's basically same old same old for Manuel.  And if Minaya doesn't improve this team by July 31st he needs to be run out of town.

I don't want it to come to this, but if all else fails and the team does not improve, it needs to be done.  This roster is way too talented to fail, and this fanbase is sick of this garbage.  I'm as optimistic of a Mets fan as they come, but it's looking pretty bleak right now. 

Here's the question running through every Mets fan's brain right now:  are we really THIS bad?  Sure, expectations were kind of low coming into the season - I mean, anything would be better than 2009.  But now we're getting swept by the Diamondbacks.  They haven't swept anyone since last August!  The Mets sparked enough hope in me last night that I fought sleep all the way to the bitter end at 2:30 in the morning, and that might be the most depressing aspect here.  That and the fact the offense could accomplish nothing during 7 innings facing the worst bullpen in the history of the league.  I feel as if the team's "spirit" and "intensity" just disappeared.  I refuse to blame Carlos Beltran for this, as some people feel he's the problem.  If anything, Beltran is part of the solution... maybe not in the outfield, as I have my doubts about his physical capability to play center field on a regular basis, but absolutely at bat.  It's not his fault that Jason Bay hasn't hit all season, or that David Wright and Ike Davis are going through an expected slump after tearing the cover off the ball.

Speaking of Bay, his performance is being targeted for what is really the first time this season.  He was flying under the radar while his teammates were hot and carrying the offense, but now EVERYONE is cold.  If there was ever a time for Bay to step up, it's now, for both his own sanity and the team.  I did read something interesting today that changed my criticisms of Bay (or at least put them on hold).  There have been several star-caliber players that struggled in their first season as Mets, namely Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran.  Piazza went on to become a fan favorite, and I personally feel Beltran has been underrated during his Mets tenure.  I know Jason Bay is not as bad offensively as he's seemed this year, now I'm just waiting for him to prove it.

I can't even talk about this series anymore.  Looking ahead, the Mets take on the Dodgers tonight.  Hisanori Takahashi takes the mound in the opener of a four-game set.  Starting Takahashi is a bit of a crapshoot at this point in the season, as most teams seem to have the book on him.  He's either been lights out or awful.  Since the offense has declined to show up to any game post All-Star Break, I'm praying for a good start from him tonight.

(here's the final snippet from my interview over at TCB the other day.  This part is particularly interesting with all the recent Oswalt-Werth trade rumors)

TCB: What is the Phillies biggest need at the trade deadline?

Pitching is an obvious need for the Phillies right now, but I don't know who available fits exactly what we need. A starter would be nice, but we already jettisoned Cliff, so why would turning around and giving up prospects for Roy Oswalt make sense? Ruben Amaro doesn't look likely to bring Pedro in again and there isn't any readily available talent down on the farm. I'm not sure if the price is right for the Phillies in the SP trade market.

Offensively however, I think the bench needs to be fixed up and another infielder needs to brought in. With Utley out indefinitely, it makes more sense to bring in a super-utility type guy to patch up holes for him, Polanco, and inevitably J-Roll if he goes out again. The best defense is a good offense, or maybe it's the other way around, but I think keeping our biggest strength (the offense) going is more important that trying to patch-work the pitching.

TCB: Jayson Werth has been a steal the past three seasons, will he be let go in free agency?

Sadly I think so. Domonic Brown is killing people in the minors and he's the future in the outfield. Also, I don't know if the team is willing to eat Raul's 10 million and put him on the bench. I would love to have him back, however I don't know if his price tag is going to be affordable over the long term. He'll be over-30 when he hits the market and if he turns it around in the second half, the offers will be very, very high. Love the guy and will definitely miss him.

The news of the Phillies negotiating for Roy Oswalt was the news of the day around here yesterday.  Something involving Roy coming in and Jayson Werth going out seems to be the one consensus as to what would come of it.  Whether it involve two teams or three, that will be the focal point of it.  If only it was that simple.

Last night it was reported that Roy Oswalt, who has a full no-trade clause, will only accept a deal to an organization that guarantees his $16 million 2012 club-option will be picked up.  This presents a major issue for the (self imposed) cap-conscious Phillies.  With so much money already on the books then, another $16 million would put them well over where they'd like to be for that season after assembling a full roster.

That's the money side of this, but the losing side might be equally important.  Namely, how it will affect Roy and how it will affect the Phillies.  Sitting a cool 7 games outside of the divisional race and 4 out of the wild card, the Phillies aren't the World Series contending "lock" that they were in April.  Could this month long dry spell deter Roy from wanting to pack his bags for Philadelphia?

Contrarily, will this losing create a sense of urgency in Ruben Amaro where he (or the ownership) decides that the $16 million is steep but necessary because the team needs Oswalt to try and get back in this race?  If recent history is any indication, I don't think that ownership will go for such a manuver however it's not impossible.

This deal seems to be falling apart at the seems, however the way team executives play things close to the heart these days, you never do know what's really going on.

I'm thinking about just setting up a generic post for games like this.  It'll read like:

Opponent's starter went seven, rarely losing command of the game, and left with a nice lead.  The Phillies couldn't really get much going and didn't hit consistently throughout the lineup. Stifled for most of the game, the struggling offense didn't produce and the Phillies pitching wasn't good enough to get a win without it.  Ryan Howard homered in the game.

Maybe I can connect it to ESPN.com so it'll just read the boxscore and when it happens just automatically throw that paragraph up and fill in the blanks.

The Phillies are not a good team right now and we're reaching the breaking point.  The Braves and Cardinals continue to distance themselves from the Phillies who doing everything short of free-falling in the standings.

Per the usual and as the generic future post says, the pitching was decent but not good enough when it counted from Blanton and Ryan Howard hit another home run, smashing a first pitch offering into the seats and sending his XXXL-family into a frenzy.

Tough call for Manual when Blanton came up with the bases loaded in a 1-1 game (7th inning).  There were 2 outs and Joe was only at 74 pitches so Charlie let him hack and hack he did.  He took three MASSIVE swings, all whiffing and the threat was over.  Probably the right move with Blanton pitching as well as he was at that point, the low pitch count, and the two out situation, but in hindsight it obviously doesn't come out so well.

Belief in a just world is a psychological concept that explains world view:  basically, good things should happen to good people, bad things should happen to bad people.  People continue to believe in a just world even when the only evidence available is to the contrary.  Case in point today:  Oliver Perez.  How is it possible that this man, who is quite easily the bane of Mets fans' collective existence at the moment, continues to come back and haunt us?

We all knew this day was coming. I just wish it hadn't come so soon.  Following the Mets' 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks last night, Oliver Perez was activated from the DL.  Infielder Justin Turner was sent back down to Triple-A to make room for Perez on the roster.  This is minor consolation for me because until yesterday I was convinced that Josh Thole (currently the Mets' best offensive catcher) would be the one banished to Buffalo.

Here's the problem, though.  Oliver Perez is not ready to be a part of a major league roster.  For one thing he is ineffective, but even more alarming is the fact that he does not seem to realize this.  And the Mets refuse to cut ties with him because 1. he's owed nearly $17 million and 2. they have this absurd belief that he will sign somewhere else for league minimum and discover himself.  Both Dan Warthen and Jerry Manuel have admitted that, while Perez was activated to join the 25-man roster, there was really no difference between Ollie now and the Ollie who went on the DL.  So what is he doing on the team?

I don't understand why the Mets WANT to take themselves out of contention.  How can they expect to be taken seriously (by fans and by baseball in general) when they insist on playing short-handed?  Perez is taking up a roster spot from this day on, just like he was before he was mercifully placed on the DL.  He has been relegated to a mop-up man hiding behind the title "lefty specialist" and he seems to be ok with this.  With the bullpen and some starters currently struggling, I wish the Mets would make a move that is actually in the interest of the team.  Perez can not be a starter, which means Hisanori Takahashi has no choice but to remain a starter, hurting both the rotation and the bullpen in the process.  He can't be a bullpen guy either, as evidenced by the way Jerry used him prior to his DL stint.  So essentially, this move accomplishes.... absolutely nothing.  Where's that just world now, Mets fans?

UPDATE: Buster Olney has a great column up about it and speculates that the deal for Roy wouldn't be directly for Jayson Werth, that Jay would get possibly dealt to Tampa Bay.  Even more interesting.  However, there is this thought nugget inside the article:

But talent evaluators with other teams asked an interesting question Tuesday night, as ESPN reported the on-going talks: If the Phillies land Oswalt, are they good enough to contend for the World Series?

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

After our initial post this morning about Phillies deals, Sportscenter is talking that the Phillies are in advance trade talks with the Houston Astros.  One proposed deal would center around Roy Oswalt for Jayson Werth, the implication being that Domonic Brown would be called up immediately to replace the struggling and shipped out superstar.

Here are my thoughts, in order about this potential deal:

1. It has to be done.  I'd spoken in the past about possibly ignoring the pitching if they couldn't find a worthwhile option, but this changes everthing.  Amaro would be turning an asset that they'd lose after the season into a premier pitcher which the Phillies desperately need.  With DoBro down on the farm, it's not unreasonable to expect that his production in the lineup will be replaced as well (especially the production level Jay's at right now).
   
   
2. I'm going to be really sad to see Jayson Werth go.  The wolfman is a fan favorite for a reason: because he can be an incredible player and he's just plain cool.  Saying that, he's pretty old for the 5 year, big money deal he would garner if he gets back on track in the second half.  I think he's capable of maintaining a high level of play, but I think it comes with some serious potential for drop-off (see the past two months).
   
3. Roy Oswalt has long been someone I'd like to have on this team.  I know his numbers have been in decline the past few seasons, but he has phenomenal stuff and a pedigree as a top pitcher in this league.  I don't want to speculate now about Lee v. Oswalt v. Halladay and I don't want to think about the fact that it could be ALL THREE plus Hamels. Just kidding.. but for real..
   
4. I can't wait to see me some Domonic Brown.  I haven't been too excited about a Phillies call-up since Ryan Howard back in 2005. I think the kid is going to be a great player, but I'm trying to hold back my expectations seeing as he will be a rookie and most likely struggle some in the show.

It doesn't help when you're starter gets hurt, let alone in the first inning.  Moyer is already on the 15-day DL and says he'll definitely pitch again this season, but the team just sent Kendrick down to the minors, so we're short two pitchers right now.

Polanco & Ryan Howard are hitting the shit out of the ball, but there are still too many guys sleeping on any given night.  Gotta start winning games sooner or later or we're all going to be crying in our beers with the Mets fans come October.

This is all verrrrry interesting, yet still speculation.  I'd be very impressed if Ruben put his pride aside, admitted the Cliff Lee mistake and brought in a big-time starter.  Per ESPN this morning:

There were indications Tuesday the Philadelphia Phillies were working on a major deal to acquire a starting pitcher in an attempt to save a season that has veered in the wrong direction this month.

The Phillies will need a starting pitcher for Saturday, since they sent Monday's starter Kyle Kendrick back to the minor leagues on Tuesday. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who is with the club in St. Louis, hinted strongly to reporters that the Phillies could acquire a pitcher from outside the organization to make that start.

--

On the pitching front, the Phillies have discussed deals involving a number of starters. They've talked about Arizona's Dan Haren, Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie and Oakland's Ben Sheets, among others. But there were indications they've spent a lot of time in recent days exploring a trade for Astros ace Roy Oswalt.