Word on the street is that Roy Halladay has officially told the Blue Jays that he won't be resigning with the team after the season.  What affect does this have on the likelihood of him getting traded this offseason?  Some, but not a ton.  The Blue Jays had to know that they weren't going to resign him, so this just solidifies their previous beliefs.  The Jays new GM is granting a negotiating window for an extension to all interested teams, which should increase his value.  The required package from the Phillies will most likely including J.A. Happ and Dominic Brown/Michael Taylor at the least.  Is that too much to give up?  I don't think so, not for Doc Halladay who's one of the premier pitchers in the game and definitely the best available.

However, there's always the chance that we're outbid and/or the asking price is astronomical (cough, J.P. Ricciardi, cough).  So, if not Roy, then who?  Option one is Edwin Jackson from Detroit.  Jackson had a great season this year and showed a lot of the promise that the Rays never saw from their former sixth round draft pick.  He would definitely be cheaper, but then again he's not nearly as good as the Doc.

Another guy, albeit a long shot, is Roy Oswalt.  He seems to be a fringe trade market guy every year and this could be the year he gets moved.  He would command a package similar to Halladay's and has an extra year on his deal after this one.  Roy is a certified ace and has been toiling away in Houston for a few years.  He has a full no-trade, but pitching for a title contender like Philly would have to peak his interest.

Finally, a darkhorse of my own, Gil Meche.  Gil was a marginal pitcher in Seattle until he hit free agency and he got an indefensible $48 million from the Royals.  Then something funny happened, and he was actually a pretty good pitcher for them.  Meche never set the league on fire, but he was consistent and productive.  With a move to the NL, Meche could be a solid, yet unspectactular number three guy in the rotation.

Fitted Phillies hats with the 2009 World Series patch are on clearance racks everywhere right now and understandably so, we're fresh off the series loss.  People aren't flocking to the stores for Phillies World Series merchandise.  Why not?

I can understand why you wouldn't want a t-shirt or hoody or matching coffee mugs (?), but the fitted hats are a completely logical purchase.  The hat contains only a small patch on the side, otherwise they're exactly the same as the normal game model that sells for upwards of $35.  Now?  $10.  Ten bucks for a game quality New Era Phillies hat.  Count me in.

More importantly, why would you be ashamed to wear that hat?  Sure, we lost, but it was a second World Series appearance in as many years and we went toe to toe with Yankees.  For 60% off I'll settle for that patch on my hat any day of the week.

The Mets finished 23 games out of first place, and yet, there is a lot to get excited about.  I'm not going to go all Jimmy Rollins and declare the Mets the team to beat, but I'm optimistic.  Here are five reasons why:

1.  Jeff Francoeur- A rare bright spot from last year, the acquistion of of Francoeur might go down as the best trade Omar ever made.  In 75 games with the Mets, he hit .311 with 10 HRs.  You could make a strong case that he was the best hitter on the team last year.  But above all, he brought a certain swagger that this clubhouse depserately lacks.  His stats are especially impressive considering that he tore a ligament in his thumb in August, and played through it.  Francoeur is exciting to watch, and the type of guy you really want to root for.  And he's just 25.

The question is whether he can build off of last season.  He cut down on his strikeouts (92), but he tied a career low in walks (23).  He has a ton of raw power, and with better protection next season Francoeur could be an all-star.  And let's not forget his cannon of an arm.

2.  Health- I feel like I am severely beating a dead horse here.  Obviously, getting the stars healthy will be a huge boost to not only the team, but the fans as well.  Above all, I really miss watching Jose Reyes play.  I think last year proved that as Reyes goes, so do the Mets.  The same can be said about Carlos Beltran, and its no coincidence that the Mets really went downhill as soon as Beltran went down.

3.  Omar is on the Hot Seat- I still remain a loyal Omar supporter, and there aren't many.  Say what you want about him, but look at all of the talent he has brought to NY.  The job of the GM is to make the team competitive.  And when healthy, they have been.  It's hard to blame him for late season collapses.

But him being on the hot seat is an absolute great thing.  Even if he doesn't have the money to spend, he is fully capable of swinging a major trade.  I can almost guarentee that a big time talent will land with the Mets this offseason.  Just watch.

4.  The Farm System- The Mets typically overrate their prospects, but there is a lot to get excited about.  Omar did a good thing by holding onto prospects at the deadline.  I'm no prospects guru, but I think this system is extremely underrated.  Ike Davis should definitely contribute in 2010, and he's the guy I'm most excited about. Jenrry Mejia could use another year of development, but his fastball sits mid 90s and he's only 20 years old.  Josh Thole isn't a mega-prospect, but he can flat out rake, and he might be the Mets everyday catcher by seasons end.  Brad Holt struggled once he reached AA last year, but he's right up there with Mejia, and he should make his MLB debut in 2010.  And let's not forget about Fernando Martinez.  He clearly wasn't ready last year, but the sky is the limit.  17 year old Wilmer Flores started in the futures game last year and looked impressive.  People love to rag on the Mets prospects, but this group is as strong as we've had in a while.

5.  David Wright- One of the most discouraging parts of 2009 was watching Wright struggle.  I hate to make excuses for him, but there had to be something wrong with his health.  Of course, its very possible that his struggles were all mental. But I fully expect him to work his ass off all season, and come back to being the elite player we all know he is.  And getting his supporting cast back will go a long way.  Not only will he have adequate protection, but it will take some of the pressure off him.

I feel like I just woke up from a bad nightmare.  Last season was by far the most difficult experience I've had as baseball fan.  So difficult, that I quit on my team (and my blog for that matter).

Watching the Mets literally limp their way to a 70-92 record was hard enough.  But watching the Yankees and Phillies compete for the World Series was cruel and unusual punishment.  I think I'd rather be water boarded.  A small consolation is that we won't have to hear "two-time defending champions" next year.  Unfortunately, Yankee fan arrogance will be as strong as ever.

But it's not like we can just pretend that 2009 didn't happen.  The Mets clearly have issues and many of them are not injury related.  I still have faith in Omar, but his seat has never been hotter.  It's put up or shut up time, and the way he approaches this offseason will make or break his tenure with the Mets.  There is a ton of talent available and it might come down to how much the Wilpons are willing to spend.

At the same time, I just want my team back.  It was no fun watching everyday lineups that included Alex Cora, Fernando Tatis, Anderson Hernandez, etc.  Serviceable role players, but not everyday starters. So getting the core healthy is exciting in and of itself.  I wouldn't be so bitter about 2009 if we actually had our guys and simply got outplayed (like in 2007 and 2008).   I feel like I was robbed of baseball.  Seriously, the 2008 collapse was more fun to watch.  At least we had a chance.

But enough with the negative.  Free agency starts on Friday, and we can begin the process of moving on.  I think I'm still suffering from post-traumatic stress, but the excitement of the hot stove is upon us.  I don't think the Mets need to go on a Yankee style spending spree, but landing a player like Matt Holliday would be a huge boost.  And based on the rumors I've been hearing, the trade market should be as ripe as ever this winter.  Whatever happens, I'm excited.  We have nowhere to go but up.

With baseball articles thin to come by these days, here's another feather you can stick in your cap Philly.  According to a list recently put out by Forbes Magazine, Philly ranked the 5th MOST Toxic City in the United States, only to be out-toxified by Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago & Houston.

Here's How they came up with their data:

"We counted the number of facilities that reported releasing toxins into the environment, the total pounds of certain toxic chemicals released into the air, water and earth, the days per year that air pollution was above healthy levels, and the total number of Superfund sites--contaminated areas that the federal government has designated for cleanup efforts--in each metro area's principal city."

So breath deep, Philly and savor the free & fresh filthy air.  Then tip back a crisp & clean toxic beverage to celebrate your achievement...on me.

Oh where does New York City rank you ask?  9th cleanest.

Today at 2 p.m. the National League Rookie of the Year award will be announced.  It appears to be a four man race at this point: Chris Coghlan, Tommy Hanson, Andrew McCutchen, J.A. Happ.  Actually depending on who you ask, it's only a three-horse race excluding our man J.A. and the fine campaign he's had (cough, ESPN, cough).

The fact that J.A. pitched some last year for a World Series championship team, but didn't qualify for a year of service time.  I think this previous exposure is the best and worst thing for his Rookie of the Year campaign.  On the good side, it was great face time and most award races are decided by who gets the most media hype during the season.  However, on the bad side, he doesn't feel like a rookie to most of the voters.  This is similar to the fact that he's not as exciting an option, because he lacks that new car smell.  In the end, I think that's what's going to cost him the award.  Happ finished 12-4 with 166 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 119 SO, .244 AVG.  Not to mention the fact that he started for a team that won it's division and ended up being the best team in the N.L.  Bottom line, I think we're all going to be disappointed at 2 p.m. when one of the other three wins the award...

You know if there's one certainty in this world, it is that Philadelphia fans are ignorant idiots who make playing in this lovely city absolutely unbearable.  They're ruthless.  Cold-hearted.  Unforgiving.  They throw batteries and unmercifully boo everyone from star players to Santa Claus.  No one is safe from their wrath.

Which is exactly why Scott Eyre is another case of a guy who hates it so much here that he will only return to pitch again if it's for the Phillies.  Wait, what?

Don't take my sarcasm here the wrong way, I'm not saying that we're a bunch of church-going saints who mow each other's lawns and are upstanding citizens.  However, Eyre is another example of what is right with Philly sports.  How bad of a place could this possibly be if guys want to remain here?  Eyre's a lefty relief pitcher, guys like that can get a job anywhere around the country until they're 40.  He may only have one more year left in the tank so staying close to home can't be that much of an issue, it's only one year.  If the team determines that he's healthy and capable to go, a deal similar to the one he just finished should keep him with the team.  And if he wants to be here, I'd be glad to have him back.

Yesterday we talked about the Phillies and potential bullpen acquisitions. Today, we'll talk third base, a position that Philly hasn't had a long-term answer at since, well unless Scott Rolen coutns, not in my lifetime.  Pedro Feliz's $5.5 Million option for 2010 has been declined so the position is open to be filled this offseason.  Let's look at the present contenders for the job:

Pedro Feliz

Happy Pete's time in Philly certainly had its high and low moments.  Pedro was a terrific defender from start to finish during his tenure but he didn't deliver the offensive goods that the front office was looking for.  Pedro's average was consistent along with his career marks, as was his on-base percentage.  However, the slugging just wasn't there and other than the defense that's why he was brought in.  After peppering 20 home runs a season four straight years in San Francisco where he played half his games in a pitcher's park, he only hit 14 & 12 runs respectively in his two years in Philly and a hitter-friendly park.  Now at 35, Feliz can't be counted on for his power and the defense will only continue to slip.  Amaro has said he will consider bringing Feliz back but only for less than the $5.5 million price tag they already rejected.  Personally, I think Pedro's time in Philly is up.  It's been great, we got a World Series title and Pedro played a solid role in that.  He had some big hits and made some great defensive plays, but I believe the road will end here.

Chone Figgins

Chone has generated quite a stock going into this offseason and should receive a real nice payday.  Despite all of Chone's abilities on the field, his coming contract may be reason alone that he's out of the Phillies plans.  Chone runs and fields and hits for a solid average and would do well table setting in our offense, but then what happens to J-Roll or Shane at the top of the lineup?  Is that a hornet's nest worth kicking with Jimmy?  I don't know, I think Charlie would be able to handle it.  Regardless, I don't think this road is one we'll be traveling so there's no more reason to look down it.

Mark DeRosa

Being a Penn Baseball guy, I've got no choice but to back Marky Mark and encourage brining him in this offseason.  Mark's 35 now, but he's put together his best years over the past three seasons.  Maybe it was due to a full slate of playing time, maybe he found a new hitting coach or stance, maybe he got a new girlfriend, I don't know, I don't care.  Now, how does he fit in in Philly?  Firstly in his favor is that the front office is a Good Old Boys network of former Penn and Wharton grads so I'm sure they've got a soft spot for DeRosa.  Secondly, he demonstrated a willingness and capability to play nearly any position on the field the last few seasons.  Right now, I think DeRosa is the number one contender for the job.  However, I have mixed feelings about Mark playing 3B everyday.  Not because he can't do it, but because he is such an exceptional super-utility guy.  In a perfect world, I think signing DeRosa and a guy to platoon with him would be the smart play.  Then, Mark could fill in all around the field for the inevitable injuries.  Raul is an old guy and will be spending some time on the DL, Chase seems to always be playing hurt, Shane might (probably will) knick something while flying around the field.  You get the picture.  More on this at the end of the look-in.

Placido Polanco

My immediate thought, no. Polanco is a second baseman who has indicated a willingness to switch to third full-time.  He's fresh off a gold glove campaign, but as Rob Neyer noted the other day, he won it more on merit and less on being exceptional.  Placido is a classically good hitter, but I don't see him lasting another 2-3 years at his current level of play.  I'm not sure why, but I can't see him as an everyday guy on this squad anymore.  He played here from '02 to '05 so the team is familiar and comfortable with him.  However, considering Polanco's abilities, does his fit in with the current team?  Polanco would be a bottom of the order, 7 or 8 slot hitter.  Considering that, who would he be table-setting for?  Chuuch.  Who would he be moving runners into scoring position for?  The pitcher.  However, it's more complicated than that.  For a guy batting after Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez, the team needs a solid hitter to clean up whatever base runners sneak through those cracks.  Polanco has smacked at least 30 doubles the past three season despite the fact that he's not a power guy.  I'm still not sold on him as the best option, but Placido has his merits should the front office bring him aboard.

Adrian Beltre

For this breakdown, I want to jump over to Lookout Landing, a Mariners blog, for their take on Adrian in '09: "Adrian Beltre didn't have a resurgent 2004-esque season to finally get the adoration that his defense has deserved for so long. Instead, he struggled as much as ever and battled serious injuries all season. He even suffered the ignominy of a ruptured/shattered/ohmygodIhavetostopthinkingaboutit testicle caused by his own tragic insistence on not wearing proper protection on the field. Did I mention that he finished the game in which that injury occurred? And that he played through immensely painful bone spurs in his shoulder? Adrian Beltre appears fun loving from his mocking of Griffey and dancing to his own introduction music. He has quirky histrionics at the plate including his own appeals and a shuffle dance at breaking pitches. He's an art form with the glove. Who cannot relate to the person with an under heralded talent they feel is not appreciated enough? And he gives it all, every last drop, on the field. More than maybe any player aside from Ichiro, Beltre deserves appreciation from local fans for his combination of skills and effort. I just want to meet him in person so I can give him a big hug and let him know that some of us, not just Red, think he’s awesome."  If that doesn't sound like guy you want on your team, then you obviously have issues reading in italics.  Beltre is an exceptional fielder, even compared to Pedro, and hits much better than our happy third basemen ever did.  Post an injury riddled '09 is a great time to sign a guy because he should definitely come at some discount.  I think Beltre earned a strange reputation after he came back to earth from his incredible 2004 season and the fact that he's been in the league for 12 seasons already, but he's established himself as a good, reliable player.  Beltre is my choice for the role, but it may come down to a monetary decision.  He's coming off a big contract that should slide downward some, but having Scott Boras as his agent, well you know...

Just about every news and rumors site is talking about the Phillies and all the many relief pitchers that they are "in contact with" and kicking the tires on.  Most of these rumors are probably true because the Phillies are in dire need of some bullpen help. So before we talk about who the Phillies want/need, let's look at the market:

Jose Valverde

Rafael Soriano/Mike Gonzalez/Billy Wagner

Fernando Rodney/Kiko Calero/Rafael Betancourt

J.J. Putz/Takashi Saito

LaTroy Hawkins/Kevin Gregg/John Grabow/Darren Oliver/Octavio Dotel

So that's what we're looking at in a somewhat tiered offering of what's available. A few guys are most likely out of place, but it's a starting point.  Let's work from the top, down. Valverde is without a doubt the best available relief pitcher/closer on the market. Pitching for Houston he didn't have a massive amount of opportunities but he saved 25 games and sported a 2.33 ERA.  His strike outs were down, but so were his hits allowed and home runs.  The problem with signing him is that he will assuredly want to close games and that may or may not be a definite in Philly.

Soriano, Gonzalez, & Wagner all present interesting cases.  Wagner carries the risk of coming off an injury but he pitched well in his short stint at the end of '09.  Soriano and Gonzalez both had solid seasons and are proven relievers.  I think I am down on those two because of their respective work in the closers role.  In Philly I don't think either would be a closer, so they could work.  However, they both spent significant time pitching in Atlanta, so the divisional foes all are more than comfortable facing them.  Not a big deal, but worth considering.

Fernando Rodney had an incredible '09 campaign converting 37 of 39 save chances.  However, Fernando still barely had his ERA+ over 1 (the average) and his WHIP approaced 1.5.  Rodney has always had the big time fastball and potential, however I don't think he would be a good fit in Philly.  The AL to NL certainly helps, however his price tag will be higher than his actual value because of this season's performance. Kiko Calero was great in Florida rarely giving up runs or base runners for that matter.  Calero is 34 years old, but a 2 year deal and a middle relief role would work out well. Rafael Betancourt made a solid come back from a rough '08 to pitch extremely well down the stretch for the Rockies.  He's another older guy at 34, but everybody knows in the national league you can be a relief pitcher forever.  This is another AL to NL guy too, always a good thing for pitchers.

Putz and Saito are both formerly dominant closers that are past there prime.  Saito had a solid '09 for Boston and is a much safer bet than Putz who had a horrendous '09 which ended in a surgery and the Mets not picking up his option.  I think Putz would be a phenomenal signing for the Phillies.  This is because he would come cheap and with no expectations because most Phillies fans are well aware of his shittyness this past year.  Then who knows maybe we get lucky and he rediscovers his fastball.  Couple that with the general anger that it would cause in Mets fans and I'm fully on the Putz bandwagon for next season.

LaTroy Hawkins/Kevin Gregg/John Grabow/Darren Oliver/Octavio Dotel  In the final grouping there is plenty to like because they're all experience relievers, but there's plenty not to like because guys like this bounce around like bar hoppers near the end of their careers and you never know what you're gonna get.  Of the group, I like Gregg, Grabow, and Oliver a little more than Hawkins and Dotel, but really there isn't too much to get all that excited about across the board.

So what should we expect?  Honestly not all that much.  The Phillies will most likely sign one of these guys, but it won't be a day of high-fiving, it'll be a solid, yet unspectacular addition to a championship-caliber ballclub.  I'm rooting for Calero & Putz on cost-effective deals, but who knows what we'll end up with.  A part of me thinks that we should just call up some minor league starters who don't project at the big league level as rotation guys.  More often than not, the best relievers are guys who came up as starters, we're bound to have some useful ones down on the farm.

So the World Series from Hell is over & The Curse is Broken (I did take a degree of satisfaction from watching Shane "Shame" Victorino make the final out of the Series and watch him slink back to the dugout).  That can only mean one thing:  Hot Stove season is heating up. Here's a list of the top 50 free agents according to MLB Trade Rumors and who Tim Dirkes predicts goes where in the NL East.

1.  Matt Holliday - Mets. The Mets could grab headlines by signing Holliday to a six or seven-year deal for more than $100MM.

5.  Randy Wolf - Mets. The Mets regrettably chose Oliver Perez over Wolf a year ago.  As the best available starter aside from Lackey, Wolf is primed to get a three-year deal worth more than $30MM.

7.  Jose Valverde - Phillies. One way to shore up a shaky bullpen: sign the best closer available.  Few teams are seeking closers, and even fewer have money, so the Phillies should be able to get a relative bargain.

13.  Orlando Hudson - Nationals. The Nats coveted Hudson last year.  Adding him now would help with their stated goal of improving up the middle.

21.  Adam LaRoche - Braves. Did LaRoche's scorching stint with the Braves last year price him out of their range?  The Mets, Orioles, A's, Mariners, Giants, D'Backs, and Rangers might also be in the market for a first baseman.

24.  Carl Pavano - Nationals. Back to his original organization?  Pavano surprisingly managed 33 starts in '09, and his 4.16 xFIP reveals his 5.10 ERA was misleading.

25.  Brad Penny - Mets. Penny is just one of many different arms the Mets might consider as they attempt to bolster their rotation depth.  No other free agent starter throws harder, so Penny's upside is still tantalizing.

28.  Bengie Molina - Nationals. Molina is difficult to place, especially if he demands more than $5MM.  With Jesus Flores coming off shoulder surgery, the Nats will probably add a veteran on a one-year deal.  The Mets also may sign a catcher.

29.  Mike Gonzalez - Braves. Gonzalez should be cheaper than Soriano, and the Braves need some kind of relief signing or acquisition. With available closers plentiful, the Braves could wait around until March in hopes of a bargain.

41.  Mark DeRosa - Phillies. I debated flipping the DeRosa-Beltre predictions, as both the Phillies and Twins have a need at third base.  DeRosa, a former Penn quarterback, has been linked to the Phils for years.